Syria - listen to our retired Generals

Last week Cameron and the Government lost a vote on military action in Syria. Much has been written, tweeted and blogged since.

Here in Ipswich a Tory blogger called Labour traitors for not support Cameron (forgetting to mention the Tory rebels or the Tory MP’s who did not even turn up but within days he was blogging that he agreed that military action was not the right way forward.

Ipswich Spy seems more concerned that Labour candidate David Ellesmere will not say how he would have voted. (since taken down) I would have thought more of a story was to ask why Tim Yeo did not even vote – but Ipswich spy said they do not chase stories beyond the Borough boundary (their next story was about a Tory councillor from outside Ipswich claiming hundreds of pounds for food- quail’s eggs?)

I do not believe military action was the right course to follow, I say that with some level of knowledge as a former soldier, for 6 months every morning when I looked out of my room I saw the remains of the Serb special police headquarters- a building that had been hit by a cruise missile – the inside were a mess but the outside of the building was intact – but if you had been hid in the cellar you would have survived. So in Damascus, there is little chance of hitting Assad or his senior henchmen, those who will be killed by a missile strike will be the lowest of the low – conscripts, civilians – not the Generals.

But what if a cruise missile hits a dump of chemical weapons- will that not cause the spread of those chemicals?

If I want my car fixed, I ask a garage not the Minister of Transport, so if I want to know if a cruise missile strike on Damascus would work I ask a General not Hammond or Hague – serving Generals are not known for giving out their opinion publically but only one former general could be found who agreed with the Government, General Rose, ex Guards and SAS – every General who got up to speak in the House of Lords spoke against attacking Syria, so why was Cameron so keen?

There is also the problem of the Syrian opposition – many factions a number who are seen as the enemy of the west – Iranian backed, Shia’s from Iraq - many who would like to attack the west. If Assad did go now it would leave a power vacuum – similar to what we had in Iraq.

Something of course has to be done about the use of chemical weapons, more pressure has to be placed on China and Russia and the use of the veto on the UN Security Council needs to looked at seriously to stop the UN becoming just a talking shop.
So I agreed with Miliband – Cameron made a big tactical error, his whips got it wrong it seemed almost arrogant to allow ministers to stay on holiday being so sure he would win the vote- he should have supported the Labour amendment but maybe he thought defeat on Thursday was better than being defeated on a second vote on the use of force this week?

The Tories accused Labour of playing party politics but as opinion polls showed that the country supported the stance of Ed, they are now saying that Cameron showed the way by letting Parliament decide and that Obama has since followed his lead in the USA- Clutching at straws.

Mr Gummer used his Star column last Friday to give us some indication of how he would vote, he also seems to blame Blair and the Iraq situation – even before Cameron lost the vote- saying how the mistrust of politicians (all Tony’s fault) has caused the drop in the number of people voting – He then (correctly) describes the Syria debate as a very important issue- the issue of waging war. Well what made me wonder if I could trust MP; s Mr Gummer was not what happened about Iraq but in the debate on waging war in Syria last Thursday – which you correctly declare an important issue is that over 100 MP’s did not even bother voting, many did not turn up and even a number of Government Ministers stayed on holiday.

As a soldier on a number of occasions I had to cancel leave because we had been warned that we might be needed, in 1998 we spent 6 months in Bosnia and expected to spend more time at home in 1999 – it never happened , instead we trained for Kosovo and deployed there less than a year after returning from the Balkans – we all deployed – all 650 men and women – none missing because they stayed on holiday – that is one of the reasons the public do not trust MP’s nothing to do with Blair or Iraq.

On Saturday I and a large number of colleagues spent the morning canvassing in Bridge Ward, Ipswich – and not one person mentioned Syria on the doorstep – instead it was the bedroom tax, immigration, lack of jobs and the mess the Tory run county were making of the roads in Ipswich. You can’t blame that on Toy Blair!

From Belgrade to Super Tuesday- elections that both can effect us.

As a bit of a political and election spotter, I take an interest in news on any election from a Parish Council seat in Suffolk to the big American "Super Tuesday" that takes place this week.




The US election always makes big news over here but probably even more so this year with the democrats likelyto elect either their first woman or first black American candiadte for the Presidential election. It would be nice if actualy some of our broadsheet papers put as much effort into promoting UK elections as they are the race for the White House- the Independent this week giving away a free US election guide and a large glossy map.




Of course the US election is important to us here- they are electing a person who will become the most powerful man in the world and some of his first decisions will effect our own foreign policy. A democrat win will almost certainly see a dramatic change in US policy in Iraq and possibly Afganistan. As an ex soldier , this interests me as I am sure a sudden US pullout from either theatre will mean that Godon Brown would have to follow suit- more so in Iraq.




But it is not just the US election that will effect us, recent German elections have been used by commentators in the UK to look for similarites and pointers towards our own future elections. But it is an election slightly further east than Germany that may cause more headaches for those who direct our foriegn policy. Today we see voting in Serbia in their presedntial elections, and the success of Serb nationalist politicians will see them more closely link themselves to Russia and will have a major effect on possible indepenence for Kosova. It could lead for more troops to be sent to the Balkans. Overstretch is a big concern for the Armed Forces at present and they are only able to pursue successful campaigns in Iraq and Afganistan due to troop reductions in Kosova and Bosnia. A hightening of tensions in the Balkans will need Gordon Beown to make sure that it is our European allies who take the brunt of an increase in troop numbers. Those NATO counties who have failed to send troops to support the mission to bring stability to Afganistan should be lent on to make sure they are at the fore of any troop increase in the Balkans.




So the election results from Belgrade today have as much interest to me as the "Super Tuesday" results will have later in the week.